South Asia Peace Wire

From: Daily Times, December 13, 2008

Stepping away from the brink

by Abbas Rashid

If the Pakistani government is destabilised or undermined as a result of Indian tactics, the forces of militancy and extremism will not only get greater space in Pakistan, India too will end up facing a bigger problem

A fortnight after the Mumbai attacks that killed over 170 people and injured many more, Pakistan remains under pressure to do more to apprehend groups accused of playing a key role in the operation. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has referred to Pakistan as the epicentre of terrorism and has insisted that the international community ensure the dismantling of the ‘infrastructure of terrorism’ in Pakistan.

The accusation is particularly directed at the Lashkar-e Tayba (LeT), the banned group that is seen as having taken the form of, or subsumed under, the Jama’at-ud Dawa (JD), also led by the former head of LeT, Hafiz Mohammad Saeed. The Indian media has by and large weighed in with considerable hype more likely to inflame popular sentiment rather than promote reasoned discussion. At the same time, the temperature has also been raised by media reports that the defence forces of both countries have been put in a state of heightened preparedness.

In an encouraging sign, Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee told Parliament on Thursday that attacking Pakistan to ‘avenge the Mumbai terror attacks is no solution’. However, this statement was accompanied by the demand that Pakistan hand over no less than forty people that India believes are behind the terror attacks.

Whatever the merit of such a demand, the government would risk a serious domestic backlash going though with it without unimpeachable proof of guilt being provided. Meanwhile Pakistan has sought the custody of Lt-Col Shrikant Prasad Purohit, allegedly involved in the Samjhota Express attack.

Among other things, we need to keep in mind that the Mumbai attacks also had the effect of reliving pressure on the Far Right extremist groups in India who appear to have supporters in the Indian armed forces as well, going by Purohit’s suspected involvement in the Samjhota Express attack. Similarly, it is extremist groups operating in the vicinity of Pakistan’s western border that have the most to gain from heightened tensions on the eastern border with India. Instead of more forces being moved west, as many advocate, to consolidate whatever gains have been made, this would have the opposite effect of relieving pressure on these groups.

Certainly, one key aspect of the issue then is whether Pakistan and India should cede a kind of veto to these groups over the peace process between the two countries.

The Pakistan leadership has repeatedly affirmed its commitment to cooperate in apprehending the perpetrators of the Mumbai massacre and bringing them to justice. A number of JD members have been picked up from Azad Kashmir and its leader Hafiz Muhammad Saeed has been put under house arrest.

There is also now a broader context to this focus. A Security Council panel late Wednesday declared Jama’at-ud Dawa a terrorist group subject to UN sanctions, including an asset freeze, travel ban and arms embargo. Now that authorities in Pakistan are moving against those identified by India and the international community, it would be far better to help in making this process more effective by sharing relevant intelligence, for instance.

Meanwhile, we cannot afford to lose sight of the peace process. Not least because, as the Indian external affairs minister has indicated, war is not an option. Given Pakistan’s many and widely known problems at this juncture, it seems that the Indian government regards this as an appropriate time to put maximum pressure on Pakistan. But if the government is destabilised or undermined as a result of Indian tactics, the forces of militancy and extremism will not only get greater space in Pakistan, India too will end up facing a bigger problem.

Pakistan must proceed with doing what it should have done much earlier, i.e., reorganise its forces and intelligence services to deal effectively with the greatest challenge to its integrity as a nation-state, which comes from within. This is not something that we should be doing at the behest of India or the United States, or any other country for that matter, but in our own national interest.

And certainly it poses a threat to our integrity if groups are found putting us in a position of vulnerability by using our territory as a launch pad to attack another country, whether on one border or the other. As President Zardari is reported to have told the most recent in a long line of visitors from the US, Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, “The government is undertaking its own investigation of the incident and taking appropriate measures.”

At the same time, India needs to work with Pakistan to restore the peace process and to get the scheduled meetings back on track. The two countries have also in this tragedy had the opportunity to see how fragile this process remains after all the years of confidence building measures that have gone into it.

Both countries must go back with renewed vigour into resolving the issues that have been held up for years not only because of their complexity but more due to the absence of political will. Sir Creek and Siachen are two such issues. The groundwork for settling both is pretty much in place and it would be a fitting response to the terror unleashed in Mumbai last month if the two governments move for their resolution in 2009, as well as embarking on a credible initiative on Kashmir.

Abbas Rashid lives in Lahore and can be contacted at abbasrh@gmail.com